The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research


The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research

Economic Analyses of Pandemics

Pandemics have long been dealt with as a medical issue. Pandemic-related literature in economics is still relatively scarce, although there was an uptick in studies following the outbreak of COVID-19. To contribute to the evaluation of the costs and benefits of pandemic policies, this research program will analyze the social and economic impact of the pandemic using two approaches: (1) a simulation of infection trends and economic activity and (2) empirical research using macro- and microdata. In (1), we extend the agent-based model used in previous research into an economic-model by introducing agents’ adaptive behavior and economic parameters. This extension allows measurement of both sector-level and micro-level impact. In (2), we quantitatively analyze data from both publicly available sources and those gained by conducting online-surveys to show the impact of policy interventions during COVID-19. In the earlier research program, we suggested there would be a substantial decrease in marriages and a decline in the labor supply due to both the illness and quarantine measures. We will continue to deal with these topics but also undertake statistical analyses to rigorously identify the effects of the pandemic. In both approaches, we will publish the results as a report accessible to the general public and as an academic paper.

Principal Investigator





Click on the link below to contact an expert or submit a question.