Countries like Japan, Britain, Italy, and Singapore that are characterised by both high infection rates for COVID-19 and high productivity levels are likely to experience the greatest economic losses through 2025, according to a report published in March 2023 by Economist Impact.

The study, for which Senior Fellow Shuhei Nomura provided input and support, seeks to quantify how COVID can continue to impact global economies and explores how actions to control infection will alter overall economic impact.

It identified four distinct country archetypes under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, forecasting potential GDP losses in 2025 for archetype 1 countries like Japan of 0.76% in the baseline scenario, 0.84% in the pessimistic scenario and 0.68% in the optimistic scenario.

“As more people get vaccinated, the world is now thinking about living with covid-19,” Nomura wrote in the report. This requires thinking about “acceptable level of . . . hospitalisation and death” that societies can absorb.

“Understanding the future economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic,” Economist Impact
https://impact.economist.com/perspectives/sites/default/files/download/pfizer_economic_consequences_report.pdf

Profile of Senior Fellow Shuhei Nomura
https://www.tokyofoundation.org/experts/detail.php?id=654